My finest guess at USAU’s seeding.
October 4, 2022 by Charlie Eisenhood in Evaluation with feedback
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Now that Regionals are wrapped up, it’s time to show our consideration to the Nationwide Championships. It’s now been three years since we had a standard common season with rankings — we’re going again to the algorithm for seeding, of us! The language round seeding is similar because it was in 2019: it’s primarily about common season efficiency and rankings, and “the order of end at Regionals will probably be strongly thought-about in figuring out seeding for nationals, however won’t be binding.”
I do my finest to comply with USA Final’s tips for my seeding predictions: USAU’s post-Regionals rankings are very closely weighted, head-to-head wins matter on the margin, and historic success is taken into account. We don’t explicitly attempt to keep away from regional matchups.
Let’s kick issues off straight away with the swimming pools generated by my predicted seeding.
|POOL A||POOL B||POOL C||POOL D|
|Drag’N Thrust (1)||BFG (2)||AMP (3)||Hybrid (4)|
|NOISE (8)||Toro (7)||Mixtape (6)||Polar Bears (5)|
|House Pressure (12)||disgrace. (11)||Sluggish (10)||XIST (9)|
|Soiled Chicken (13)||Love Tractor (14)||Crimson Flag (15)||CLX (16)|
1. Minneapolis Drag’N Thrust
Drag’N is the top-ranked staff by greater than 100 factors. They cut up a pair of video games with AMP and have a win over Hybrid. Clear #1 seed.
2. Seattle BFG
Issues get tough straight away. BFG had a wonderful common season and is #2 within the rankings, however they misplaced at Regionals to a Mixtape staff that underperformed for a lot of the season. That is the place you must lean on the algorithm. Wins over Hybrid and Polar Bears assist solidify this spot for the defending champs.
3. Philadelphia AMP
#4 within the algorithm however they’ve a H2H win over Hybrid.
4. Ann Arbor Hybrid
#3 within the algo. H2H loss to AMP and win over Polar Bears.
5. San Francisco Polar Bears
#5 within the algo. 1-1 vs. Mixtape and 1-0 vs. Toro. H2H loss to Hybrid. Fairly clear #5 seed.
6. Seattle Mixtape
It’s a little bit tough to determine what to do with Mixtape. They’re fairly clearly higher than they’ll get seeded. They’re #7 within the rankings, a spot behind Toro. In the end, I believe USAU will seed them forward of Toro (towards whom they cut up a pair of video games) as a result of Toro completed in third place in a so-so Southeast and Mixtape received a really sturdy Northwest. They cut up video games with Polar Bears. This seeding additionally has the ancillary good thing about getting BFG and Mixtape out of the identical pool.
7. Durham Toro
Don’t anticipate Toro to drop very far. They might even go at #6. The rankings are king with regards to the seeding. Their H2H win over NOISE
8. Madison NOISE
#8 within the rankings. Yep, NOISE will get a regional rematch with Drag’N. It occurs!
9. New York XIST
The following highest staff within the rankings. They cut up with Sluggish throughout the season however the NE Regionals win ought to lock up this spot with out query.
10. Boston Sluggish
Ranked proper behind XIST and forward of disgrace. No purpose to maneuver them round.
11. Fort Collins disgrace.
Rankings. Virtually useless even with House Pressure.
12. Huntsville House Pressure
SE Regional champs. Ranked a single level behind disgrace. You may see USAU swap disgrace and House Pressure to keep away from the SC regional rematch in Pool B, however they simply don’t actually try this. Wouldn’t be unreasonable, although (House Pressure will both see Toro or Soiled Chicken).
13. Atlanta Soiled Chicken
#15 within the rankings.
14. Boulder Love Tractor
The following highest ranked staff.
15. Vancouver Crimson Flag
Dangerously underseeded! However that is the place they fall within the rankings.
16. Ames Chad Larson Expertise
The tenth Nationals look for CLX! The one-time powerhouse would be the backside seed this 12 months.