Keep away from these fantasy busts in your 2022 draft

August 23, 2022

Remark

As you head into your fantasy drafts, it’s not sufficient to have recognized a participant or two you wish to goal. It’s additionally helpful to have a way of gamers you wish to keep away from, significantly these whose outlooks seem prone to fall in need of their big-name billing.

I’m right here to assist with an inventory of 4 stars — one at every of the key positions — I’m fading within the weeks forward. In fact, each participant listed is price drafting, however provided that he falls far sufficient previous his common draft place (ADP). For this train, I’ll be utilizing as a baseline every participant’s ADP within the aggregated, half-PPR rankings at Fantasy Execs.

Derrick Henry, RB, Titans

ADP: 4th at RB | Me: tenth

Let’s go forward and kick issues off with the participant for whom the most important issues are predicted. I instructed people to avoid Henry final 12 months, and also you’re darn proper I’m doing it once more. In fact, my powers of prognostication weren’t trying so sizzling when the Tennessee again was main all operating backs in fantasy scoring although eight weeks, and by a substantial margin at that. Nevertheless, he then suffered a foot damage that required surgical procedure, protecting him out of motion till the NFL playoffs.

Foot accidents are regarding, however this one could possibly be thought-about a fluke, particularly provided that Henry had solely missed two video games over his earlier 5 seasons. However one thing appeared prefer it needed to give as a result of the Titans had been giving him an outrageous workload of 27.4 carries per recreation, plus 2.3 receptions, for nearly 30 touches each week. To spin this ahead, Tennessee is inviting the same final result if it tries the identical tactic, significantly as a result of Henry might be 29 by the top of the season. That’s positively historic for a operating again, and even for somebody of his exceptional measurement, he has racked up quite a lot of put on and tear with 1,495 profession touches, fourth most amongst gamers presently on NFL rosters.

If the Titans cut back Henry’s touches, it might hold him spry, however his numbers would endure as a result of he has grow to be more and more reliant on quantity. His 4.3 yards per carry final season was simply his lowest over the previous 4 seasons, and his charge of damaged tackles has plummeted over the identical span.

Then there’s the extremely questionable capability of the Titans’ offense to ship Henry a gentle stream of straightforward landing alternatives. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill confirmed his personal indicators of decline final season and is now 34, and with the departure of extensive receiver A.J. Brown, Tannehill is throwing to one of many league’s least-imposing receiving corps behind one of many lowest-rated offensive strains.

Add all of it up, and I see method too many crimson flags to wish to spend a first-round choose on Henry. That just about actually means you gained’t be getting him should you comply with my recommendation, however you’ll be getting an opportunity to make a draft-day guess on somebody with a extra palatable risk-reward profile.

ADP: sixth at WR | Me: eleventh

Throughout a 2021 marketing campaign by which he completed second solely to Cooper Kupp in WR fantasy factors per recreation, Samuel amassed some exceptional numbers. One among which was his eight dashing touchdowns, an NFL file for his place, on simply 59 carries. One other unimaginable stat was his 18.2 yards per reception, essentially the most amongst all extensive receivers with not less than 25 catches, regardless of his common depth of goal being simply 8.6 yards, which ranked 83rd in that group.

It’s all very spectacular — however the general efficiency can also be primed for regression. The dashing touchdowns are virtually assured to drop, if solely as a result of Samuel reportedly desires for use much less in that position and San Francisco needs to be more healthy this season at operating again and thus much less in want of his providers on the bottom. As well as, new beginning quarterback Trey Lance is a serious dashing menace in his personal proper and is prone to hold a few of these finish zone visits to himself.

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Samuel might stay the NFL’s yards-after-catch king, provided that he has led the league in YAC per reception in every of the previous two years and was second in 2019. Lance looms once more, although, as a possible limiting issue as a result of he initiatives to be rather more of a deep-ball thrower — which ought to profit 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk specifically — than predecessor Jimmy Garoppolo. With Lance trying to make use of his legs to increase performs and provides Aiyuk time to get open downfield, or to tuck the ball and run with it, Samuel could possibly be lacking the great previous days when Garoppolo needed to get the ball out early and infrequently on quick-hitting routes.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

ADP: ninth at QB | Me: thirteenth

Rodgers will flip 39 this season, however Tom Brady has proven that’s possibly not an enormous deal and Rodgers might nonetheless be using a late-career enhance from the psychedelic powers of ayahuasca. At age 38, the Inexperienced Bay famous person was nonetheless ok to win his second straight NFL MVP award and end sixth at his place in fantasy factors.

Of higher concern is the lack of Davante Adams, who was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders this spring after ending within the high six in extensive receiver fantasy factors per recreation in every of the previous 4 years. Rodgers helped Adams attain these heights, however the reverse was virtually actually the case as effectively. Specifically, it’s onerous to check Rodgers having pretty much as good a rapport with any of this 12 months’s Packers receivers close to the aim line; Adams scored 12 of his 29 touchdowns over the previous two seasons from lower than six yards out.

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Inexperienced Bay’s new No. 1 wideout, by Rodgers’s personal acclaim, is Allen Lazard, a former undrafted free agent who established profession highs final season with 40 catches for 513 yards. Different veterans readily available embody the mercurial Sammy Watkins and a past-his-prime Randall Cobb, with rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs tasked with ultimately forming the thoughts meld their QB calls for. Doubs has appeared surprisingly good in coaching camp and preseason motion, however the true power of the Packers this 12 months might be at operating again, given the estimable presence of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. It might make all of the sense on this planet for Inexperienced Bay to attempt to wring as a lot manufacturing as potential from its backfield, on the expense of its talent-deficient passing assault.

ADP: thirteenth general | Me: twenty second

It’s not that I’ve pushed Kelce down my tight finish record, though I do understand him as holding not more than a razor-thin margin over second-ranked Mark Andrews. It’s simply that I’ve him as far nearer to a third-round worth than the near-first-rounder his ADP suggests. Thus, as with Henry, I gained’t be getting a lot of the Kansas Metropolis stalwart in my drafts.

The Henry comparisons proceed with Kelce’s age and declining effectivity. Kelce turns 33 in October and is ready to grow to be the oldest non-quarterback with a top-15 ADP since Randy Moss in 2010 (per Sharp Football Analysis). Final season, he posted his lowest yards per reception and yards per route run since 2015, and he had a serious tumble from 2020 in fantasy factors over expectation (66.3 to 41.3, per RotoViz).

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In fact, even on a potential profession downslope, Kelce could possibly make up for it this season due to Tyreek Hill’s absence. The large-play extensive receiver was traded to Miami and leaves behind 159 targets, a few of which could moderately be anticipated to get funneled in Kelce’s route. Alternatively, the Chiefs introduced in a number of receivers, together with veterans JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and promising rookie Skyy Moore, and the group could possibly be trying to unfold the passing-game wealth.

Defenses appeared in 2021 to have found out a few of Coach Andy Reid’s tendencies, so dealing Hill might have been step one in a schematic overhaul that is likely to be to Kelce’s profit. Then once more, it may not. The takeaway for me is that there’s an excessive amount of uncertainty right here to really feel that Kelce is an particularly protected choose, and if he’s not locked into the quantity his drafters predict, there isn’t quite a lot of upside at this level in different facets of his recreation.

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