This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat e-newsletter. To learn the total e-newsletter, click on right here. And subscribe to get it frequently in your inbox.
It’s practically September, and there’s abruptly an terrible lot of readability within the Nationwide League Wild Card race.
For the Padres, the components seems to be fairly easy: They should stave off the Brewers or catch the Phillies. In the event that they do a kind of two issues, they’re within the playoffs.
The schedule is about to get harder, and San Diego nonetheless has some critical query marks that must be answered. So what does the trail to the postseason appear like for the Padres? Right here’s a have a look at how they get there:
1. The subsequent two weekends are crucial
A lot has been made from the schedule disparity between the Padres and Brewers down the stretch. And, sure, the Padres’ schedule is notably harder.
However that schedule-strength hole is tied virtually completely to the following two weekends. The Padres play the Dodgers twice — first in Los Angeles, then in San Diego. On the identical time, the Brewers will probably be taking part in the D-backs and Reds.
Take away these two weekends, and the remaining schedules for each groups are virtually even. If the Padres have been to get up on Sept. 12 nonetheless in playoff place, properly, you’d like their possibilities from there.
It’ll be a tall job. The Dodgers have received eight of 10 matchups towards the Padres this season, outscoring them 55-18. And, certain, each time the Padres play the Dodgers, the stakes really feel excessive. However these sequence may legitimately decide the Padres’ playoff fortunes. With a number of off-days over the following two weeks, the Padres can align their rotation and reset their bullpen for these Dodgers sequence.
In some way, a way, they should reverse their latest fortunes towards L.A.
2. There’s no room for error at nearer
The timing of Josh Hader’s struggles couldn’t be a lot worse.
“We solely have so many video games left,” supervisor Bob Melvin stated. “It’d be good to get him rolling, as a result of we received him for a motive, and that’s to shut out video games.”
I don’t declare to have the reply. I do not understand how the Padres get Hader pitching like himself once more. I do not know the perfect plan for his workload. I do not know who ought to fill the nearer position in Hader’s absence.
However I do know the Padres higher get it proper.
The character of their present predicament is such that they can not afford to lose winnable video games. These video games will virtually actually determine the Wild Card race.
As issues stand, the Padres appear to have struck a pleasant steadiness with Nick Martinez dealing with the ninth inning, whereas Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon and Luis García pitch different high-leverage spots. It’ll be fascinating to see how they alter that plan going ahead.
At a distinct juncture on the calendar, the Padres may afford to take a while for trial and error on the again finish of their bullpen. However with 32 video games left on the schedule — every of them paramount — they don’t actually have time for that.
Sure, each recreation counts the identical. However the components that went into the Padres’ decision-making in April and Might are very totally different from the choices they’re making proper now.
Early within the season, the massive image took precedent. The Padres, as an illustration, used a six-man rotation for a lot of the season’s first half. They wished to maintain their beginning pitchers contemporary. In addition they gave common off-days to their starters
However recently, the urgency has ratcheted up in a giant means. The long-term aim of reaching the postseason abruptly feels prefer it’s a short-term aim. Which means it’s time for some robust selections. A few examples:
• Jurickson Profar, when he’s at his greatest, has confirmed himself a really serviceable leadoff hitter. He works counts and finds his means on base. He’s a pest — in the very best means. However recently, the Padres haven’t gotten that model of Profar. Getting into play Monday, he was hitting simply .223/.310/.311 in August. If the Padres had a cushty Wild Card lead, there could be completely no hurt in letting Profar work by some kinks within the leadoff spot. However that lead isn’t snug. As such, the red-hot Ha-Seong Kim has began three of the previous 4 video games within the leadoff spot. Profar, in the meantime, must earn his means again into that position on an on a regular basis foundation.
• What do the Padres do with Sean Manaea and his 7.29 second-half ERA? In the event that they have been to remain on flip within the beginning rotation, Manaea’s subsequent two begins would come towards the Dodgers. (And, as we mentioned earlier, these video games are fairly darn necessary.) The Padres have some leeway to govern their rotation forward of these Dodgers sequence. They’ve off-days earlier than each sequence and an off-day after the second sequence as properly. They may not skip Manaea completely, however there’s at the least a risk that his subsequent outing or two be pushed again.
In brief, the Padres must be treating these video games extra like playoff video games than regular-season video games. A month of very high-stakes baseball lies forward.
