The case for Joel Embiid for MVP

October 11, 2022

The 2022-23 season is rapidly approaching and our betting specialists have gotten you coated. Over the following two weeks we’re having a look at the right way to method a number of the prime groups in league and giving out some futures greatest bets earlier than the season suggestions off.

Sports activities Betting Insider Doug Kezirian provides his recommendations on favorites and longshots to guess for this season’s MVP award.

All odds from Caesars Sportsbook

NBA betting preview schedule

Thursday: The case for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors
Friday: The case for the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks
Monday: The case for the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday: Who to guess for MVP
Wednesday: Betting win totals and awards
Oct. 17: Social media and betting
Oct. 18: NBA title odds and favorites


Is that is the 12 months Joel Embiid breaks by and at last hoists the NBA MVP award?

As a result of crew success enjoying such an important position with the voters, I usually like to attend till the season begins earlier than I get closely concerned within the MVP race. I typically construct a portfolio of some guys and take a look at to make sure a stable payout. In fact that additionally entails monitoring accidents and studying the tea leaves, significantly after the All-Star break.

Nevertheless, the one guess I’ve made is on Embiid, who’s at the moment +700 at Caesars Sportsbook. Narratives play a big position and the Sixers massive man has completed because the runner-up in back-to-back seasons. Whereas James Harden is gifted and may put up nice numbers, Embiid will finally get credit score for any success the crew has. The Sixers are anticipated to contend once more for a prime seed this 12 months.

Favorites

Luke Doncic is the betting favourite (+390) and whereas he’s definitely gifted sufficient to win the award, historical past suggests it might be a shock consequence.

In 23 of the final 25 seasons, the MVP has led a crew that completed with a one- or two-seed in its convention. The 2 outliers had been Nikola Jokic final 12 months and Russell Westbrook within the 2016-17 season, when each starred for groups that completed with a Western Convention six-seed.

Each had been uncommon circumstances. Westbrook averaged a triple-double and broke Oscar Robertson’s all-time mark for triple-doubles in a single season. Final 12 months, Jokic posted unbelievable statistics however he was a little bit of a longshot coming into the previous few months till accidents to different contenders opened the door.

As for this season, the Mavericks are the seventh favourite within the Western Convention alone. Nevertheless, by way of common season win totals, there’s not an enormous quantity of separation. Dallas is positioned with 48.5 wins, whereas the league’s highest is the Boston Celtics with 53.5.

The primary cause I desire ready to wager on the MVP race is that I have to assess the league’s dynamics. Some gamers look healthier than others and sure groups seemingly take the common season extra significantly.

With all that being stated, I’m grabbing Embiid. I don’t really feel his odds will get any longer and I anticipate Philadelphia to have a robust season from the beginning. I desire Embiid over Giannis Antetokounmpo (+550), Jayson Tatum (10-1), Kevin Durant (10-1), Jokic (12-1) and Ja Morant (14-1).

Longshots

The opposite angle I usually take previous to the season is targeted on longshots. Any man with stable early momentum will see his odds shrink drastically and some candidates come to thoughts. I couldn’t blame anybody for backing Devin Booker (55-1), Anthony Edwards (60-1) or Rudy Gobert (100-1). I perceive they’re longshots for a cause however I imagine the pricing is off.

The rationale for Booker is apparent. The Phoenix Suns are coming off a 12 months the place they completed with the league’s greatest file and whereas Chris Paul performed a pivotal position, Booker is their greatest participant. If he evolves his recreation even additional, being the perfect participant on the highest general seed is a large plus for an MVP candidate’s marketing campaign.

Edwards and Gobert are linked as a result of they’re now teammates in Minnesota. Their season win whole of 49.5 means that oddsmakers predict a giant leap, and I agree with that.

Edwards appears on the verge of an explosive season. He averaged 25.5 PPG on 40% taking pictures from past the arc in final 12 months’s playoffs. Many future All-Stars take a large step of their third season and maybe the identical comes true for the previous No. 1 decide. The query is whether or not Minnesota has the products to compete for a prime seed and Edwards can blossom into a real MVP. Normally a candidate out of nowhere is dismissed, like DeMar DeRozan final 12 months however at 60-1, I may perceive the argument.

Nevertheless, I might reasonably seize a bit of Gobert at 100-1. In fact he is extremely unlikely to win it but when Minnesota does attain its ceiling, Gobert would obtain lots of credit score. The three-time defensive participant of the 12 months dominates that finish of the court docket and he may actually change Minnesota’s complete crew protection. Additionally, he was recognized principally as a screener in Utah, however maybe he thrives in a brand new system the place he can rating sufficient factors to have MVP consideration. He can end on the rim and a degree guard like D’Angelo Russell could also be precisely what he must have respectable scoring numbers.

See also  Albert Pujols headlines 2022 Musial Awards honorees