Emmy Award Predictions 2022

September 10, 2022

Photograph-Illustration: Vulture; Pictures by Apple TV+ and HBO Max

Let’s begin the predictions for the 2022 Emmy Awards — to be broadcast Monday, September 12 on NBC — by being utterly clear. I used to be proper about 16 out of 24 classes after I engaged on this train final yr, getting a number of performing winners improper and whiffing utterly in the case of directing. However I used to be spot-on with regard to each excellent sequence class.

I point out this to level out that even these of us who pay shut consideration to the Emmys can typically be completely incorrect about how they’ll prove. This awards present, which has lately bumped up the variety of nominees in some classes and is set by greater than 20,000 trade professionals, is much less predictable than it’s ever been. That doesn’t imply it’s utterly unpredictable — the Excellent Selection Discuss sequence honor has gone to Final Week Tonight With John Oliver for the previous six years and possibly will once more this yr. However there are at all times some surprising choices that hold issues not less than considerably fluid.

With all that stated, listed below are my predictions for the 2022 Emmy Awards, which, hopefully, will embody greater than 16 correct guesses this yr.

Abbott Elementary
Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Solely Murders within the Constructing
Ted Lasso
What We Do within the Shadows

Emmy voters have a historical past of discovering a comedy they like, then giving it this prize again and again. Veep received it three years in a row. Fashionable Household did it for 5. In current ceremonies, although, they’ve blended it up a bit. Final yr Ted Lasso was named finest comedy, Schitt’s Creek the yr earlier than that, and Fleabag and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel the 2 years prior. 

It’s doable this class may go in what looks as if the obvious path, by touchdown within the lap of Ted Lasso for the second consecutive yr. With 20 nods, it’s essentially the most nominated comedy, though a number of others — Hacks, Solely Murders within the Constructing, and Barry — are proper on its heels. I’d not be shocked to see any of these three win come Monday.

However I can also’t ignore Abbott Elementary, one of many uncommon community sitcoms nowadays to turn into a part of the cultural dialog, and at a time when lecturers have been in extra-acute want of feeling seen and appreciated. If Quinta Brunson’s mockumentary wins, it will likely be the primary community comedy to take action since 2014, the yr Fashionable Household earned its fifth Emmy. Given all of the upheaval on the streaming aspect of issues this yr, there could also be an elevated need to reward one thing from the extra conventional aspect of broadcasting.

I believe I’d be barely extra satisfied of that if Abbott had extra general nominations, although, so I’m sticking with Ted as my prediction.

Will win: Ted Lasso.

Ought to win: Barry, which delivered an distinctive third season, or What We Do within the Shadows, which often is the most constantly comedic entry right here, but in addition could also be too oddball and area of interest for some voters to embrace.

Higher Name Saul
Squid Recreation
Stranger Issues

Succession is the one drama right here that has beforehand received on this class, and I’m completely ready to observe it do this once more. The third season was utterly Emmy worthy, and if a narrative about rich elitist individuals arguing about their very own energy and standing isn’t relatable to individuals in Hollywood, who is it relatable to, proper?

That stated, it’s doable a more moderen sequence may win. Squid Recreation was probably the most talked-about reveals in 2021, and its compelling idea and international enchantment are elements in its favor. Severance was additionally a talker, and is extraordinarily well-made prime to backside; it may have an opportunity right here, too. However given Emmy voters’ tendency to stay with the acquainted and prestige-y, I think the Roy household will emerge triumphant for a second time.

Will Win: Succession.

Ought to Win: It’s a excessive crime that Higher Name Saul has zero Emmys. I don’t simply imply on this class, the place it’s been nominated for each single season of its existence, I imply whole. No Emmys for probably the most miraculously nice spinoffs in TV historical past! The second half of its sixth season is eligible for subsequent yr’s Emmys, so it has another probability in 2023, however rattling. Why doesn’t anybody ever vote for it?

The Dropout
Inventing Anna
Pam and Tommy
The White Lotus

If Inventing Anna wins this Emmy, I’ll demand an official investigation into what the Emmy voters have been smoking after they solid their ballots. That sequence, whereas diverting in its approach, shouldn’t be nominated on this class. Its spot ought to have gone to Station Eleven.

Thankfully, I don’t suppose Inventing Anna will win. This one comes right down to Dopesick or The White Lotus, or probably The Dropout as a spoiler. My intestine is telling me it’ll be White Lotus, however I additionally wouldn’t be shocked if the opioid crisis-focus of Dopesick sways some voters.

Will Win: The White Lotus.

Ought to Win: The White Lotus. Out of all of those restricted sequence, it’s the one which has left essentially the most lasting impression, regardless of having been launched all the best way again in the summertime of 2021.

The Every day Present With Trevor Noah
Jimmy Kimmel Reside!
Final Week Tonight With John Oliver
Late Evening With Seth Meyers
The Late Present With Stephen Colbert

I may write a protracted paragraph breaking down the viability of every contender, or I may save us on a regular basis and let you know that Final Week Tonight With John Oliver goes to win its seventh Excellent Selection Discuss Collection Emmy on Monday night time.

Will Win: Final Week Tonight With John Oliver

Ought to Win: In truth, most likely Final Week Tonight, however a win for Late Evening With Seth Meyers can be a refreshing change of tempo.

A Black Girl Sketch Present
Saturday Evening Reside

This isn’t a knock on A Black Girl Sketch Present, however SNL has taken this one for the previous 5 years, together with in 2021, when it additionally was competing solely towards A Black Girl Sketch Present. Onerous to conceive of it not successful once more.

Will Win: Saturday Evening Reside.

Ought to Win: Saturday Evening Reside. Each week, the solid and crew carry out a miracle by getting every episode on the air, however this season, the Christmas episode ended up having to roll stay with barely any solid members and no viewers because of the Omicron wave. They usually nonetheless principally pulled it off.

The Wonderful Race
Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Large Women
Nailed It!
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Prime Chef
The Voice

Ah, one more class through which the identical reveals hold successful. Since this class’s inception in 2003, Wonderful Race has received ten instances, The Voice 4, and RuPaul’s Drag Race has dominated for the previous 4 years working. I really feel assured it’s going to accomplish that for a fifth.

Will Win: RuPaul’s Drag Race.

Ought to Win: Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Large Women — we’d like some novelty on this class!

Donald Glover, Atlanta
Invoice Hader, Barry
Nicholas Hoult, The Nice
Steve Martin, Solely Murders within the Constructing
Martin Quick, Solely Murders within the Constructing
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

The frontrunners on this class are each Saturday Evening Reside veterans who’ve received earlier than: Jason Sudeikis and Invoice Hader. The second season of Ted Lasso required Sudeikis to go to extra emotional locations and the identical could possibly be stated of Hader’s work in Barry. This might simply go to both of them, however there additionally could possibly be a surge of help for Steve Martin or Martin Quick, whose charms have been launched to an entire new era through Solely Murders within the Constructing. What if there have been someway a tie and Martin and Quick each received? Unlikely, however that may be enjoyable to see!

Will Win: Jason Sudeikis. Once more, I’m betting on the Emmy group’s love for Ted Lasso.

Ought to Win: Invoice Hader, who  completely gave himself over to the depth required to play Barry Berkman at his lowest (thus far).

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Elle Fanning, The Nice
Issa Rae, Insecure
Jean Good, Hacks

There’s a probability Quinta Brunson may win this, however I believe Jean Good is extra more likely to prevail on this class for the second consecutive yr. I’ll add that Brunson submitted the pilot of Abbott Elementary for consideration on this class, and I believe her work, and the present normally, is way stronger within the episodes that adopted.

Will Win: Jean Good.

Ought to Win: It positive can be good to see Issa Rae get one thing for 5 seasons of excellent work as star (and co-creator) of Insecure. However I doubt it’s going to occur.

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Brian Cox, Succession
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Recreation 
Bob Odenkirk, Higher Name Saul
Adam Scott, Severance
Jeremy Sturdy, Succession

This can be a robust class to name as a result of a case could possibly be made for a number of of those nominees. Typical knowledge suggests one of many Succession males will win, probably Brian Cox since Jeremy Sturdy received two years in the past. (Final yr’s victor was Josh O’Connor, who, as I perceive it, is now the King of England.) However Sturdy did his most devastating work in season three of Succession, so I’d not depend him out.

I additionally wouldn’t depend out Lee Jung-jae, the face of Squid Recreation whose efficiency was one of many massive causes viewers turned so invested in that dystopian story. Jason Bateman, who has an Emmy for steering however not performing, could possibly be a powerful contender right here, too, since this was Ozark’s final season. Then there’s Bob Odenkirk, who almost died of a coronary heart assault whereas taking pictures the ultimate season of Higher Name Saul however got here again to complete the job. There was an outpouring of affection for Odenkirk throughout his restoration and that love may additionally translate into Emmy votes — I repeat, Higher Name Saul has no Emmys! — except individuals plan to order their appreciation till subsequent yr, when Saul will compete for the final time. As for Adam Scott, he’s terrific in Severance, however I believe he has the least probability of successful purely due to who he’s up towards.

So who’s going to take the trophy? [Wrings hands nervously before typing a prediction …]

Will Win: I’ve a sense Bob Odenkirk may pull off a deserved upset and make one of many extra touching acceptance speeches of the night time. I can really see this taking place inside my mind. However my mind generally will get its alerts crossed, which is why, if Saul Goodman loses, I believe the award will go to both Jeremy Sturdy or Lee Jung-Jae.

Ought to Win: Give Bob Odenkirk that Emmy, he cheated loss of life!

Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Present
Zendaya, Euphoria

For my part, this class comes down to 3 ladies: Laura Linney, Melanie Lynskey, and Zendaya. That is Linney’s third nomination for her function as Wendy Byrde and her final yr to win, one thing she hasn’t achieved but. As essentially the most constantly nice a part of Ozark, she is deserving. However so is Melanie Lynskey, who authentically inhabits the darkish, troubled Shauna on Yellowjackets, and makes us love her regardless of her many transgressions. After which there’s Zendaya, who received this award two years in the past. She provides such an all-in efficiency within the Euphoria episode “Stand Nonetheless Just like the Hummingbird,” which, fairly rightly, is the one she submitted on this class, that it felt like her second Emmy had simply gotten sewn up proper in entrance of our eyes.

It could very properly have. Except a type of different two women — or a shock upset — says in any other case.

Will Win: Zendaya is simply utterly go-for-broke in Euphoria, and that’s precisely the type of efficiency that appeals most to these deciding the Emmys.

Ought to Win: I’m a fan of Zendaya, however really can be thrilled for Lynskey or Linney in the event that they received.

Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Beneath the Banner of Heaven
Oscar Isaac, Scenes From a Marriage
Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Himesh Patel, Station Eleven
Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy

Virtually each professional on the Gold Derby predictions web site is satisfied Michael Keaton is the winner right here. I’m, too. Dopesick has some flaws as a sequence, however Keaton provides the most effective and most layered performances of his profession in it. Keaton additionally doesn’t have an Emmy, and this gives the right alternative to lastly give him one.

Will Win: Michael Keaton.

Ought to Win: Keaton or Himesh Patel, who was note-perfect in Station Eleven.

Toni Collette, The Staircase
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam and Tommy
Sarah Paulson, Impeachment: American Crime Story
Margaret Qualley, Maid
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

There are a number of robust performances right here, however I imagine this award is Amanda Seyfried’s to lose. Seyfried elevates what may have simply been a wink-wink satirical portrayal of Elizabeth Holmes into one thing a lot richer and sobering to witness. In a class through which each actress is enjoying an precise, non-fictional individual, the challenges Seyfried confronted stand out, as does her capability to beat them.

Will Win: Amanda Seyfried.

Ought to Win: Amanda Seyfried.

Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Toheeb Jimoh, Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Bowen Yang, Saturday Evening Reside

In a class overrun by nominees from Barry and Ted Lasso, I’m inclined to imagine an actor from a type of reveals will prevail. Brett Goldstein received final yr, a factor I didn’t predict — “I believe the sensible cash this yr is on Kenan Thompson,” is a sentence I wrote confidently on the time. He may win once more, though I really feel like Jimoh, because the surprising love curiosity, and Mohammed, because the surprising villain, popped extra in season two. However I additionally suppose the 2 nominated Barry performances have higher possibilities — once more, I say this as somebody who was lifeless improper on this class final yr. Winkler, the nicest man in Hollywood, performed Gene Cousineau this season as somebody way more haunted than he’s ever been, and was simply terrific. So right here’s what I’m considering:

Will Win: Henry Winkler.

Ought to Win: Anthony Carrigan. Hear, I’ve no downside with Winkler successful this award. Give him each trophy, each fish within the sea, the whole lot he needs and extra — he deserves it. However Carrigan has taken the Noho Hank character to locations the Barry creators by no means envisioned, and this season specifically managed to put naked the ridiculous and stylish qualities of the character, typically in the exact same second.

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Kate McKinnnon, Saturday Evening Reside
Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Abbott Elementary and Ted Lasso solid members run the desk right here and, except voters determine to present Kate McKinnon a swan track (and third) Emmy, I really feel like one of many ladies from these reveals is finest positioned to win. Hannah Waddingham, who received final yr, may do it once more. However my Supporting Actress Sense — an actual and legit phenomenon — means that voters might veer towards Janelle James of Abbott Elementary, who was completely hilarious because the principal who doesn’t give a fuck. And if I’m proper, I stay up for listening to her acceptance speech.

Will Win: Janelle James.

Ought to Win: As soon as once more, Janelle James.

Nicholas Braun, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Present
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Park Hae-soo, Squid Recreation 
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
John Turturro, Severance
Christopher Walken, Severance
Oh Yeong-su, Squid Video games 

Not one of the gents from Succession has ever received on this class, and that pushes them to the entrance of the pack, with the caveat that nationwide treasure John Turturro and veteran actor Oh Yeong-su additionally may very a lot win right here, too.

Of the Succession trio, Macfadyen and Culkin had essentially the most dramatic materials to play with this season. Given what occurs within the season finale and Tom’s ratcheting anxiousness all through season three, I can see the Emmy voters leaning towards Macdadyen. Which is totally legitimate. However in my eyes, Culkin was the MVP of the season. Do I must make you re-watch the spectrum of feelings that play out on Culkin’s face on this scene? As a result of I’ll!

Will Win: I nonetheless suppose the voters will go along with Matthew MacFadyen.

Ought to Win: However they need to go along with Kieran Culkin.

Patricia Arquette, Severance
Julia Garner, Ozark
Jung Ho-yeon, Squid Video games 
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Rhea Seehorn, Higher Name Saul
J. Smith Cameron, Succession
Sarah Snook, Succession
Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria 

Julia Garner already has two Emmys for taking part in Ruth Langhorne on Ozark. I believe she’ll win a 3rd so long as Emmy voters don’t lean in favor of Jung Ho-yeon’s shifting work in Squid Recreation, the so-far unawarded Sarah Snook in Succession, or the lengthy, lengthy overdue Rhea Seehorn for Higher Name Saul.

Will Win: Julia Garner. I imagine voters received’t have the option to withstand this.

Ought to Win: I’m so glad Seehorn lastly bought nominated, however she wants an Emmy for her portrayal of Kim Wexler like, yesterday.

Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus
Jake Lacy, The White Lotus
Will Poulter, Dopesick
Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy
Peter Sarsgaard, Dopesick
Michael Stuhlbarg, Dopesick
Steve Zahn, The White Lotus

My intuition tells me that Murray Bartlett has one of the best shot at successful for his unforgettable efficiency in The White Lotus. The Gold Derby crew appears to agree, so I’m sticking with it.

Will Win: Murray Bartlett.

Ought to Win: Murray Bartlett — the person pretend-shat in a suitcase for this!

Connie Britton, The White Lotus
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Sydney Sweeney, The White Lotus
Mare Winningham, Dopesick

First let me state that it’s wild that this whole class consists of performances from solely two reveals when so many restricted sequence exist. (Was nobody conscious of how phenomenal Matilda Lawler was in Station Eleven?) That stated, it’s onerous to think about Jennifer Coolidge not successful given how good she was in The White Lotus and the way a lot buzz that efficiency generated.

Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge.

Ought to Win: In all probability Coolidge, however I’d not be in any respect mad if Kaitlyn Dever or Natasha Rothwell received.

Atlanta, “New Jazz,” Hiro Murai
Barry, “710N,” Invoice Hader
Hacks, “There Will Be Blood,” Lucia Aniello
Solely Murders within the Constructing, “The Boy From 6B,” Cherien Dabis
Solely Murders within the Constructing, “True Crime,” Jamie Babbitt
Ted Lasso, “No Weddings and a Funeral,” MJ Delaney
The Ms. Pat Present, “Child Daddy Groundhog Day,” Mary Lou Belli

Will Win: Barry’s “71oN” and the Solely Murders episode “The Boy From 6B” stand out from the pack for his or her experimentation and ambition. However I believe the complexity and immediacy of the motion sequences in “701N” give it the sting.

Ought to Win: Barry, “710N”

Ozark, “A Onerous Technique to Go,” Jason Bateman
Severance, “The We We Are,” Ben Stiller
Squid Recreation, “Purple Mild, Inexperienced Mild,” Hwang Dong-Hyuk
Succession, “All of the Bells Say,” Mark Mylod
Succession, “The Disruption,” Cathy Yan
Succession, “Too A lot Birthday,” Lorene Scafaria
Yellowjackets, “Pilot,” Karyn Kusama

Will Win: Severance, “The We We Are.” Ben Stiller did an exceptional job of threading numerous storyline threads via a single needle on this finale. If it doesn’t win, Squid Recreation’s first episode, “Purple Mild, Inexperienced Mild” definitely will.

Ought to Win: Severance, “The We We Are.” By the best way, did I point out that Higher Name Saul, probably the most exactly directed reveals on TV, bought no nominations right here, which is loopy? Oh, I did point out that, simply now? Cool!

Dopesick, “The Folks vs Purdue Pharma,” Danny Sturdy
Maid, “Sky Blue,” John Wells
Station Eleven, “Wheel of Fireplace,” Hiro Murai
The Dropout, “Inexperienced Juice,” Michael Showalter
The Dropout, “Iron Sisters,” Francesca Gregorini
The White Lotus, Mike White

Will Win: Most probably The White Lotus, which Mike White carried totally on his shoulders throughout a pandemic shoot, however I can’t completely rule out Dopesick.

Ought to Win: The White Lotus, or Hiro Murai’s stunning first episode of Station Eleven.

Abbott Elementary, “Pilot,” Quinta Brunson
Barry, “710N,” Duffy Boudreau
Barry, “Beginning Now,” Alec Berg and Invoice Hader
Hacks, “The One the Solely,” Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
Solely Murders within the Constructing, “True Crime,” Steve Martin and John Hoffman
Ted Lasso, “No Weddings and a Funeral,” Jane Becker
What We Do within the Shadows, “The On line casino,” Sarah Naftalis
What We Do within the Shadows, “The Wellness Middle,” Stefani Robinson

Will Win: Abbott Elementary has a extremely robust change in my opinion, however so does the Solely Murders within the Constructing finale. I’m leaning towards Solely Murders, however I actually suppose this might go both approach.

Ought to Win: What We Do within the Shadows, “The On line casino,” as a result of no different present on TV dared to show a vampire’s love for The Large Bang Idea. Bazinga!

Higher Name Saul, “Plan and Execution,” Thomas Schnauz
Ozark, “A Onerous Technique to Go,” Chris Mundy
Severance, “The We We Are,” Dan Erickson
Squid Recreation, “One Fortunate Day,” Hwang Dong-hyuk
Succession, “All of the Bells Say,” Jesse Armstrong
Yellowjackets, “F Sharp,” Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson
Yellowjackets, “Pilot,” Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson

Will Win: Jesse Armstrong has received twice for his Succession writing, and I believe the Emmy voters will stay constant and provides him a 3rd.

Ought to Win: Severance or Higher Name Saul.

Dopesick, “The Folks vs Purdue Pharma,” Danny Sturdy
The Dropout, “I’m in a Hurry,” Elizabeth Meriwether
Maid, “Snaps,” Molly Smith Metzler
Impeachment: American Crime Story, “Man Dealt with,” Sarah Burgess
Station Eleven, “Unbroken Circle,” Patrick Somerville
The White Lotus, Mike White

Will Win: Mike White for The White Lotus. I’m hesitant to name something a lock, however this could be a lock?

Ought to Win: Mike White for The White Lotus.

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