FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Snowfall in January 2022, however restricted rainfall in subsequent months
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Secure cereal import necessities forecast in 2022/23
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Inflation stays comparatively low regardless of will increase in worldwide commodity costs buffered by pegged trade price
Snowfall in January 2022, however restricted rainfall in subsequent months
Agriculture supplies an essential livelihood in rural areas. Out of the entire cropland space, estimated at about 196 000 hectares, roughly 43 p.c is irrigated, and 57 p.c is rainfed (2020 knowledge). An equal share of barely over 40 p.c is devoted to tree and subject crops, and the remaining is planted with greens.
Home manufacturing of cereals is negligible because of the unconducive climatic and geographic situations. Solely very small portions of sorghum are planted as winter cereals in October and November and harvested in June. Wheat is generally sown in February for harvest from June. Cereal manufacturing in 2022 is estimated at a barely above-average degree of 100 000 tonnes, the same degree to the harvest gathered in 2021.
Except for Mafraq, common to barely above-average collected precipitation was recorded over all different agriculturally important governorates in 2022. Above-average ranges of precipitation have been principally resulting from uncommon snowfall within the final decade of January 2022 in northern and central areas, with as much as 30 cm of snow accumulation, which resulted in important damages to subject crops. Under-average rainfall was recorded within the subsequent months, decreasing the quantity of saved water in dams and reservoirs. Though common dam ranges have been about 20 p.c full as of July 2022, a degree just like 2021, a few of the dams within the southern area, principally used for consuming water, have been between 1 and three p.c of their capability, rising the chance to run dry.
Jordan is among the many high ten world exporters of phosphate fertilizer and will probably profit from the present wave of excessive fertilizer costs. Concurrently, home agricultural enter costs stay excessive, constraining the planted space for a lot of crops.
Secure cereal import necessities in 2022/23
Even in years with above-average home manufacturing, over 97 p.c of the home cereal meals and feed necessities are happy by imports. Cereal import necessities within the 2022/23 advertising and marketing 12 months (July/June) are forecast at a mean degree of three million tonnes. Wheat and barley imports are normally sourced from the Black Sea Area given the decrease freight prices in comparison with different origins, with the biggest share originating from Romania. Between 2016 and 2020, the nation sourced about 20 p.c of its wheat imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Throughout the identical interval, over 35 p.c of barley imports originated from the Russian Federation and 14 p.c from Ukraine. The beginning of the warfare in Ukraine put a halt on marine exports from Ukraine. Though shipments of meals from the Russian Federation weren’t topic to direct sanctions, restrictions on financing and insurance coverage protection slowed down the tempo of exports.
Regardless of the elevated world cereal costs, the nation continued tendering, principally for wheat and barley. Present wheat shares cowl 15 months of the nationwide consumption necessities.
Shares of rice and maize normally cowl a couple of one month of consumption wants, and feed barley for 12 months. To keep away from future market turbulences, the federal government plans to take care of strategic shares of wheat (each within the nation and in transit) to cowl two years of meals consumption wants.
Worth inflation stays comparatively low
In July 2022 (newest accessible info), the annual meals value inflation price was estimated at 3.8 p.c, down from the 5.5 p.c recorded in Could 2022. Regardless of the slight will increase in comparison with 2021, the degrees of meals value inflation stay comparatively low regardless of excessive import reliance. The headline inflation price was estimated at 5.3 p.c in July 2022, following a gradual improve since 2021 when charges ranged from 0 to 2 p.c. Regardless of reasonable upticks in inflation charges, reflecting elevated world commodity costs, the nationwide forex is pegged to the USA greenback and this has helped buffer bigger home value good points.
In earlier years the nation subsidised the value of bread, however in 2018 it switched to offering direct money subsidies to focus on low-income households. The federal government, nevertheless, now units the retail value of mowahad bread (flat bread) at USD 0.45/kg (in comparison with USD 0.22/kg earlier than the reform). To offset the elevated value of a number of inputs utilized in bread manufacturing, together with vitality, the federal government lowered the value of wheat flour which is bought to bakers. The change in insurance policies has eradicated 90 p.c of waste in consumption and subsidy abuse.
In response to the United Nations Excessive Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of July 2022, about 676 000 registered Syrian refugees have been hosted within the nation, principally concentrated in Mafraq, Amman and Irbid governorates. This determine has not modified considerably since late 2016. A lot of the refugees arrived between January and April 2013, when the battle within the Syrian Arab Republic escalated. Since 2020, they’re additionally allowed to work within the healthcare sector and, since final 12 months, in all sectors open to non-Jordanians, assuming they safe a piece allow.
