KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot October 2022: The Points Motivating Voters One Month Earlier than The Midterm Elections

Key Findings

• Within the upcoming midterm elections, many races will probably be determined by marginal modifications in turnout with a couple of voters making a distinction. The most recent KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot examines what well being care points could also be motivating small teams of voters that would shift some key races. Abortion entry and reproductive well being is motivating majorities of Democratic ladies, ladies of reproductive age, and Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters in states the place abortion is at present unlawful. That is additionally the problem that these voters wish to hear candidates speak about in the course of the subsequent month of the marketing campaign. Furthermore, state motion on abortion appears to be a very motivating difficulty for Democrats in states which have a full abortion ban. The opposite well being care difficulty that’s resonating with a gaggle of voters – older voters – is decreasing the price of prescribed drugs for individuals with Medicare. Majorities of voters ages 65 and older say they’re extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps the Inflation Discount Act provisions aimed toward capping prices and permitting the federal authorities to barter costs for individuals with Medicare. These provisions had been additionally motivating, to a lesser extent, Republican voters.
• With a couple of month earlier than the 2022 midterm election, half of registered voters say they’re extra motivated to vote on this upcoming election in contrast with previous elections. A single occasion doesn’t maintain a definite benefit – with greater than half of each Republican and Democratic voters saying they’re extra motivated – however the points motivating every group of voters differ. When requested to say in their very own phrases why they’re extra motivated to vote now, the highest difficulty offered by Republicans is the financial system, whereas Democratic voters usually tend to supply abortion as their motivation for being extra wanting to vote. Impartial voters are divided between the 2 points. Massive shares of voters additionally supply partisan causes like holding the opposite occasion out of workplace for the primary cause why they’re motivated to vote.
• The Supreme Courtroom’s choice overturning Roe v. Wade is constant to encourage some voters as half of voters (50%) now say the Courtroom’s choice has made them extra motivated to vote, up from 43% who stated the identical in July and a rise of 13 share factors from an analogous query in Could. As well as, state actions on abortion are additionally motivating voters, notably within the states the place full abortion bans are actually in place. General, 4 in ten voters say their state’s abortion legal guidelines have made them extra motivated to vote, however this will increase to 51% amongst voters residing in states with full abortion bans. As well as, three in 4 Democratic or Democratic leaning unbiased voters (74%) residing in states with full abortion bans in place say their state abortion legal guidelines have made them extra motivated to vote.
• The legality of abortion within the wake of the Dobbs choice additionally continues to resonate with ladies voters, ages 18 to 49. Greater than 4 in ten (44%) ladies voters, ages 18-49, say they’re extra motivated to vote this 12 months in comparison with earlier elections, and most of them (59%) say the Supreme Courtroom choice overturning Roe v. Wade has made them extra motivated to vote. As well as, when requested to say in their very own phrases why they’re extra motivated to vote, one in seven of this group gives causes associated to the Supreme Courtroom choice, reminiscent of the problem of abortion and reproductive rights (9%) and defending ladies’s rights (4%).
• With abortion dominating the problem of well being care to date within the 2022 midterm election, the KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot additionally examines whether or not the well being care provisions within the Inflation Discount Act are resonating with sure teams of voters. Whereas adults are conscious of a few of the key well being provisions which can be included within the legislation, a few of the provisions aimed toward decreasing the price of prescribed drugs for individuals with Medicare are resonating with some voters, together with these ages 65 and older. About two-thirds of voters ages 65 and older say they’re extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps capping out-of-pocket prices for insulin for individuals with Medicare (64%) or authorizing the federal authorities to barter the value of some prescribed drugs for individuals with Medicare (65%), and three-fourths of older voters (73%) say they’re extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps putting a restrict on out-of-pocket drug prices for individuals with Medicare.

What Is Motivating Voters Forward of the Midterm Elections?

With the upcoming midterm election solely a month away, about half of registered voters (49%) say they’re extra motivated to vote in comparison with earlier elections. About 4 in ten (41%) say they’re about as motivated as they’ve been in previous elections and one in ten (9%) say they’re much less motivated to vote. No occasion holds a motivation benefit at this level within the election with comparable shares of Republican voters (57%) and Democratic voters (52%) saying they’re motivated to vote. Older voters have traditionally had larger charges of voter turnout than youthful voters and the 2022 midterm election seems to be no exception with almost six in ten adults ages 65 and older say they’re extra motivated to vote, in comparison with barely lower than half of their youthful counterparts.

Throughout racial and ethnic teams, Hispanic voters appear to have extra tepid ranges of motivation to vote within the 2022 midterm election. Whereas about half of White voters (53%) and Black voters (48%) say they’re extra motivated to vote, simply three in ten Hispanic voters (30%) say the identical. Certainly, about one in six Hispanic voters (16%) say that in comparison with earlier elections, they’re much less motivated to vote.

When motivated voters are requested to say in their very own phrases why they’re extra motivated to vote now than in earlier elections, about one in ten say they’re extra motivated to vote as a result of financial system and inflation (9%) and an analogous share say their elevated motivation is as a result of difficulty abortion and reproductive rights (8%). Nonetheless, reflecting the polarized state of politics within the nation, vital shares of extra motivated voters give partisan causes (33%) for his or her elevated motivation to vote. About three in ten cite the need for change (29%) and about one in ten motivated voters point out democracy, voting rights, and the significance of voting as a cause why they’re extra motivated to vote now than in earlier elections.

The highest difficulty offered by motivated Republican voters for his or her elevated motivation is the financial system (15%), whereas Democratic voters usually tend to supply abortion (13%) than the financial system (2%) as the problem making them extra wanting to vote. Impartial voters are divided between the 2 points with comparable shares providing the financial system (10%) and abortion (10%) as their motivating difficulty. Unsurprisingly, partisanship additionally appears to be a key driver for each Republican and Democratic voters, with massive shares of motivated voters from each events citing party-related causes for his or her elevated motivation. 4 in ten motivated Republicans (41%) give partisan causes for his or her elevated motivation together with 19% who say they’re extra motivated to vote to both to maintain Democrats out of workplace or to vote for Republicans, and a further 10% point out dissatisfaction with President Biden. Amongst motivated Democratic voters, a couple of third (32%) identify party-related causes for his or her elevated motivation, together with 13% who point out wanting to maintain Republicans out of workplace or eager to vote for Democrats.

Amongst voters who say they’re much less motivated to vote now in comparison with earlier elections, 16% cite not believing within the election course of as a cause why they’re much less motivated and comparable shares point out disliking the candidates (15%) and never considering their vote issues or will rely (12%).

The Prime Points For Voters

An awesome majority (88%) of voters say {that a} candidate’s positions on points they care about will probably be a “main issue” in deciding how they vote for Congress this 12 months, highlighting the significance of how candidates speak concerning the high points for voters over the subsequent few weeks. Most voters additionally say the candidate’s expertise (61%) and political occasion (56%) is a “main issue” of their voting choice.

Given the overwhelming majority of voters who say a candidate’s positions on points will probably be main issue of their vote, the most recent KFF Well being Monitoring ballot requested voters to call in their very own phrases the one difficulty they’d most like to listen to candidates speak about. Financial points, together with inflation, emerge as the important thing difficulty forward of the November midterm election with 35% of voters saying that’s what they wish to hear candidates speak about. Past financial points, notable shares of voters say they want to hear candidates speak about abortion, Roe v. Wade, and reproductive rights (15%), and about immigration (9%).

Throughout partisans, the financial system is clearly the highest difficulty for Republicans and for independents. Half of Republican voters (52%) and one-third of unbiased voters say they wish to hear candidates speak about financial points, together with inflation. Immigration is the second most talked about difficulty by Republican voters (18%) whereas amongst unbiased voters, 14% say they need candidates to debate abortion and reproductive rights, whereas one in ten (10%) wish to hear about immigration. Democratic voters are considerably divided on what they wish to hear candidates focus on, with almost three in ten (28%) who say they wish to hear about abortion and reproductive rights, whereas 1 / 4 of Democratic voters (23%) wish to hear about candidates speak concerning the financial system.

The financial system additionally stands as essentially the most distinguished difficulty throughout racial and ethnic teams with almost 4 in ten White voters (39%), three in ten Hispanic voters (30%), and 1 / 4 of Black voters (26%) saying they wish to hear candidates speak about financial points forward of the election. Nonetheless, abortion additionally emerges as a key difficulty, notably for Black voters as almost one in 5 say they wish to hear candidates speak about it.

Girls voters are extra doubtless than males to say they wish to hear the candidates focus on abortion, reproductive rights and Roe v. Wade (19% vs. 11%), although the financial system is the highest difficulty for each teams (34% and 37% respectively). Abortion rights are particulalrly vital amongst Democratic ladies – a 3rd of Democratic ladies (34%) say they wish to hear candidates speak about abortion, greater than twice the share of unbiased ladies (16%) and almost seven instances the share of Republican ladies (5%) who say the identical.

How Adjustments In Abortion Insurance policies Are Motivating Midterm Voters

Within the wake of the Dobbs choice overturning Roe v. Wade and a lot of states taking legislative motion to limit abortion, the most recent KFF ballot finds that half of voters (50%) say the Supreme Courtroom’s choice has made them extra motivated to vote, up from 43% who stated the identical in July and a rise of 13 share factors from an analogous query in Could, earlier than the Courtroom had issued its choice however after a draft of the forthcoming choice was leaked. A majority of girls voters, ages 18 to 49, (59%) proceed to say the Supreme Courtroom choice overturning Roe v. Wade has made them extra motivated to vote, comparatively unchanged from the July KFF ballot.

The Dobbs choice appears to be motivating voters who wish to vote for candidates who assist abortion entry greater than these voters who need candidates to restrict entry. Voters who say they’re extra motivated to vote on this election in comparison with earlier ones are about twice as prone to say they plan on voting for candidates who wish to defend entry to abortion (58%) than for candidate who wish to restrict abortion entry (27%).

As well as, amongst those that say the Supreme Courtroom choice itself has made them extra motivated, three in 4 (76%) say they plan on voting for candidates who wish to defend entry to abortion in comparison with 17% who say they plan on voting for candidates who wish to restrict abortion entry.

Equally, with abortion legal guidelines being decided on the state stage, many citizens (40%) say their state’s abortion legal guidelines have made them extra motivated to vote within the 2022 midterm election. Notably, voters in states with an abortion ban in place (51%) are extra doubtless than these in states with protections for abortion entry (32%) to say their state abortion legal guidelines have made them extra motivated to vote. State abortion bans look like notably motivating for Democrats as three in 4 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters in states which have full abortion bans say their state abortion legal guidelines have made them extra motivated to vote within the midterm election.

On each, the Supreme Courtroom choice and up to date state actions, bigger shares of Democratic voters say every has made them extra motivated to vote than Republican voters. Equally, Black voters are extra doubtless than their White counterparts to say each Supreme Courtroom’s choice and their state abortion legal guidelines have made them extra motivated to vote. About half of girls voters say the Courtroom’s choice overturning Roe (53%) and their state abortion legal guidelines (46%) have elevated their motivation to vote. Notably, Republican ladies voters are considerably extra doubtless than their Republican male counterparts to say the abortion legal guidelines of their state have made them extra motivated to vote (36% vs. 24%), although half of each Republican ladies (50%) and males (50%) say they plan to vote for candidates who wish to restrict entry to abortion.

How The Dobbs Choice Is Motivating Girls Voters Of Reproductive Age

KFF polling from July 2022 discovered that greater than seven in ten ladies voters beneath the age of fifty stated the problem of abortion entry could be essential in making their choice about who to vote for within the midterm election. The most recent KFF Well being Monitoring ballot finds that enormous shares of girls voters beneath 50 stay extra motivated to vote as a result of Supreme Courtroom’s choice overturning Roe v. Wade, and that almost all are planning to vote for candidates who will defend abortion entry.

A number of months because the Supreme Courtroom overturned Roe, the problem of reproductive rights stays salient for girls voters ages 18 to 49, the group most straight impacted by the Courtroom’s choice. Whereas a 3rd of girls voters beneath age 50 say they wish to hear candidates focus on financial points, one in 5 (19%) say the problems they most wish to hear them speak about are abortion, reproductive rights, and Roe v. Wade.

General, 44% of girls voters beneath age 50 say, in comparison with earlier elections, they’re extra motivated to vote in November. The difficulty of abortion and reproductive rights resonated with these youthful ladies voters as about six in ten ladies voters ages 18 to 49 (59%) say the Supreme Courtroom choice overturning Roe v. Wade has made them extra motivated to vote, and half (51%) say their state abortion legal guidelines have elevated their motivation to go to the polls.

Just like general voters who say they’re motivated by the Dobbs choice, ladies voters 18 to 49 who are actually extra motivated to vote additionally usually tend to vote for candidates who assist abortion entry. Eight in ten ladies voters 18-49 who say they’re extra motivated to vote due to the Supreme Courtroom choice on Roe say they’ll vote for a candidate who desires to assist abortion entry (79%).

State Abortion Restrictions

Following the Dobbs choice, fourteen states now have full bans on abortion. For the most recent breakdown of key details about abortion entry within the U.S., see the KFF Abortion in The U.S. Dashboard.

Most voters stay against punitive abortion restrictions, with greater than seven in ten voters opposed to creating it against the law for docs to carry out abortions (74%) or for girls to get abortions (79%) or permitting personal residents to sue individuals who present or help in abortions (81%). Six in ten voters (59%) oppose prohibiting abortions after a fetal heartbeat is detected and eight in ten (82%) oppose prohibiting abortion even in circumstances of rape or incest – a restriction that’s at present in-place in states reminiscent of Texas, Tennessee, South Dakota, Missouri, Louisiana and Kentucky amongst others.

Although a majority of Republican voters (70%) approve of the Supreme Courtroom’s choice overturning Roe v. Wade, majorities throughout partisan voters – together with most Republicans – are opposed to legal guidelines prohibiting abortion even in circumstances of rape or incest, legal guidelines making it against the law for girls to get an abortion that might lead to both fines or jail, and legal guidelines permitting personal residents to sue individuals who present or help ladies in getting abortions.

Massive shares of voters residing in states with abortion bans oppose most of the restrictions surveyed. Greater than eight in ten voters (83%) in states with full abortion bans say they oppose legal guidelines prohibiting abortion even in circumstances of rape and incest – which is at present the case in most of those states with full abortion bans. Nonetheless, there’s some assist for prohibiting abortions as soon as cardiac exercise is detected amongst voters in states with full bans (45% assist vs. 55% oppose).

Inflation Discount Act Well being Care Provisions And Pupil Mortgage Cancellation As Voting Points

Within the months main as much as the midterm election, which is traditionally seen as a referendum on the president and their occasion, President Biden signed into impact the Inflation Discount Act (IRA), a brand new legislation containing provisions associated to well being care and prescription drug prices, local weather, and tax coverage. As well as, he introduced scholar mortgage debt forgiveness for a lot of adults within the U.S. The KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot examined how these latest Biden actions could also be impacting voters forward of the midterm elections.

The Inflation Discount Act

Simply over one month after President Biden signed the IRA into legislation, many of the public (77%) say they’ve heard or learn a minimum of a bit concerning the new legislation, together with majorities of adults throughout partisans, age teams, and racial and ethnic teams. About eight in ten adults ages 65 and older (82%), lots of whom could also be affected by the brand new legislation’s Medicare provisions, say they’ve heard a minimum of a bit concerning the new legislation and they’re twice as doubtless as adults beneath age 65 to say they’ve heard “quite a bit” about it (25% vs. 12%).

But, even if three in 4 adults have heard a minimum of a bit concerning the new legislation, few know what the legislation does. In actual fact, most adults are unaware of the legislation’s key well being provisions. Most say they’re uncertain if the legislation extends monetary subsidies for individuals who buy well being protection via the Reasonably priced Care Act market (66%), locations a restrict on out-of-pocket prescription drug prices for individuals with Medicare (63%), caps month-to-month out-of-pocket prices for insulin for individuals with Medicare (60%) or authorizes the federal authorities to barter the value of some prescribed drugs for individuals with Medicare (55%).

Consciousness of the local weather provisions within the new legislation, nevertheless, is larger in comparison with a few of the well being care components of the legislation. Whereas about half of adults (48%) say they’re “undecided” if the brand new legislation makes large, new investments in local weather and clear vitality packages and in tax credit for renewable vitality, about 4 in ten adults (42%) are conscious the IRA does this.

Adults who say they’ve heard or learn “quite a bit” or “some” concerning the Inflation Discount Act are extra doubtless than those that have solely heard or learn a bit to know that every of the IRA provisions requested about within the survey had been certainly a part of the brand new legislation.

Adults ages 65 and over, a gaggle that largely advantages from the Medicare prescription drug provisions of the legislation, are extra doubtless than their youthful counterparts to know that the IRA authorizes the federal authorities to barter the costs of some prescribed drugs for individuals with Medicare (45% vs. 33% of adults 18 to 64) and to know that the invoice caps month-to-month prices for insulin for individuals with Medicare (38% vs. 26% of adults 18 to 64).

Although few adults are conscious of the precise provisions included within the Inflation Discount Act, many of those provisions are well-liked amongst voters. Majorities of voters say they’d be extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps putting a restrict on out-of-pocket prescription drug prices for individuals on Medicare (66%), capping month-to-month out-of-pocket insulin prices for individuals with Medicare (65%) and authorizing the federal authorities to barter the value of some prescribed drugs for individuals on Medicare (59%).

Voters are extra divided on provisions associated to local weather and clear vitality and increasing subsidies beneath the Reasonably priced Care Act. About half of voters (51%) say they’d be extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps making large, new investments in local weather and clear vitality packages and supply tax breaks for renewable vitality, whereas lower than half (43%) say they’d be extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps extending monetary subsidies for individuals who buy protection via the Reasonably priced Care Act market.

Moreover, only a week after the passage of the IRA, the Biden Administration introduced a plan to cancel as much as $10,000 in federal scholar loans for many debtors with incomes beneath $125,000. Notably, scholar mortgage cancellation seems to be notably polarizing with 4 in ten voters (40%) saying they’re extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps cancelling some federal scholar mortgage debt for many debtors who make beneath $125,000 whereas an analogous share (38%) say they’d be much less prone to vote for a candidate who helps this.

These new insurance policies might encourage completely different segments of voters. Majorities of voters ages 65 and older say they’re extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps the Medicare provisions within the Inflation Discount Act, although fewer say the identical a couple of candidate who helps clear vitality funding, the extending ACA subsides, or cancelling some scholar loans. Then again, scholar mortgage cancellation might resonate amongst youthful voters as these ages 18 to 29 are greater than twice as doubtless as voters over 65 to say they’re extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps cancelling some scholar loans.

Not less than six in ten Democratic voters say they’re extra prone to vote for a candidate who helps every of the insurance policies requested about, with the insurance policies aimed toward addressing prescription drug prices for individuals with Medicare being among the many hottest. Not less than six in ten unbiased voters say they’re extra prone to vote for candidates who assist these Medicare prescription drug provisions, although these insurance policies are much less well-liked amongst Republican voters. Eight in ten Democratic voters and half (51%) of unbiased voters are also motivated to vote for candidates who assist local weather investments, in comparison with only one in 5 Republicans (19%) who say the identical.